The U.S. military is racing to boost missile production after years of output that lagged behind current demand left key weapons in short supply, according to an analysis of Pentagon procurement data.
At current production rates, some of the Pentagon’s most critical munitions would take years — and in some cases decades — to replenish, exposing a gap between battlefield use and industrial capacity that cannot be quickly closed.
Major defense contractors have struck new agreements with the Pentagon and pledged to significantly increase production across several high-end munitions programs. But senior military officials warn the buildup will take time.
“I think it will take one to two years for them to scale. It won’t be soon enough,” Indo-Pacific Command Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo told lawmakers in April.
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The push comes as recent combat has drawn down U.S. stockpiles of high-end munitions, exposing a growing gap between how quickly the military can use advanced weapons and the years it takes to replace them — raising concerns about longer-term readiness.
The gap between usage and replenishment is also reportedly drawing scrutiny inside the administration.
The Atlantic reported that in closed-door discussions, Vice President JD Vance questioned whether the Pentagon is fully accounting for how much those stockpiles were depleted during the Iran conflict — raising concerns about the availability of key munitions even as defense officials publicly insist U.S. stockpiles remain sufficient.
Vance disputed that characterization Wednesday in an interview on Fox News’ “The Will Cain Show,” rejecting the report’s sourcing while acknowledging concerns about military readiness.
“Of course, I’m concerned about our readiness because that’s my job to be concerned,” Vance said, adding that defense leaders are “doing an amazing job.”
He also dismissed the report, saying, “Don’t believe everything you read, especially in papers like The Atlantic.”
Pentagon officials have pushed back on concerns.
“America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing,” spokesperson Sean Parnell previously said to Fox News Digital.
“As Secretary Hegseth has highlighted numerous times, it took less than 10% of American naval power to control the traffic going in and out of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “Since President Trump took office, we have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests. Attempts to alarm Americans over the Department’s magazine depth are both ill-informed and dishonorable.”
But historic Pentagon procurement data helps explain the gap.
The Navy’s Tomahawk cruise missile, for example, was procured at an average rate of about 66 missiles per year over the past seven years. At that pace, it would take roughly 12 years to meet the Navy’s goal of adding 785 more.
For the Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system, the gap is even more stark. Procurement has averaged about 30 interceptors per year — meaning it would take nearly three decades to reach a new target of 857 additional interceptors at those rates.
Even for more widely produced systems like the Patriot PAC-3 interceptor, historical output has fallen short of current demand. The U.S. has procured roughly 212 PAC-3 MSE missiles annually on average, a pace that would take about two years to meet a new goal of 405.
Recent combat has already underscored the strain.
Pentagon acting comptroller Jay Hurst said the conflict with Iran has cost roughly $25 billion so far.
“Most of that is munitions,” he told lawmakers in recent days.
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U.S. forces used large shares of several critical munitions during the campaign, a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found, including more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles and more than 1,000 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles. Patriot interceptor use was estimated between roughly 1,060 and 1,430 missiles — more than half of the U.S. prewar inventory.
Despite the heavy usage, analysts say the U.S. retains enough munitions to sustain current operations. The greater concern, they warn, is whether stockpiles can be rebuilt quickly enough to support a future conflict against a peer adversary.
Some production gains are already underway.
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Similar scaling efforts have been seen in other munitions programs, including artillery production, which has expanded severalfold since 2022.
Defense firms say they already are increasing output and investing heavily in expanding capacity. RTX, the parent company of Raytheon, said missile deliveries were up more than 40% year over year in the first quarter, building on production gains made in 2025. The company also said it invested $2.6 billion last year to expand manufacturing capacity and plans to continue increasing spending.
The company has said it plans to produce more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles per year, while output of Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) could reach nearly 1,900 annually.
Lockheed Martin has increased production of the Patriot interceptor significantly in recent years to around 600 annually. The company recently announced plans to expand capacity to 2,000 per year.
But analysts say funding alone cannot push these plans forward.
“We have more money than we have capacity,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s just time.”
Missile production depends on long-lead components such as propulsion systems and guidance technology, often sourced from a limited number of suppliers, meaning new orders can take years to translate into delivered weapons.
Even under normal conditions, missile production follows a multi-year cycle. Before recent conflicts, it typically took about two years from contract award to initial delivery, with another year to complete production.
Those timelines have since stretched as demand has outpaced capacity, Cancian said, adding that new orders today could take “four, maybe five years” to fully deliver.
Much of the Pentagon’s planned increase in munitions spending is tied up in upcoming budget negotiations, including supplemental funding and future defense appropriations, which lawmakers have yet to finalize.