Despite years of warnings that China could move on Taiwan within the decade, the U.S. intelligence community now assesses that Beijing is not planning an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 and has no fixed timeline for doing so.
“The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” according to a newly released Annual Threat Assessment.
The finding marks a shift from prior warnings in Washington that China would have the capability to move on Taiwan within a narrowing window — often referred to as the “Davidson Window,” after a 2021 warning from a top U.S. Indo-Pacific commander.
That benchmark gained traction after then-Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson told lawmakers in 2021 that China could attempt to take control of Taiwan “in the next six years,” warning the threat would “manifest during this decade.”
BEIJING LEVERAGES UN TROOPS, FUNDING TO EXPAND GLOBAL INFLUENCE, HOUSE REPORT WARNS
China is currently “building a force with the aim of being capable of deterring U.S. and allied forces in the region and to achieve their stated objective of developing the ability to seize Taiwan by force if necessary,” Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress during a worldwide threat hearing Wednesday. “However, the IC assesses that China likely prefers to set the conditions for an eventual peaceful reunification with Taiwan, short of conflict.”
Unlike previous assessments, which focused on China’s growing military pressure and invasion capabilities, earlier reports did not make a definitive judgment about whether Beijing planned to use force. The 2024 and 2025 assessments described Taiwan as a potential flashpoint and warned China was building the capability for a cross-strait campaign, but stopped short of assigning a timeline or stating intent.
Despite the assessment, the report underscores that China has not abandoned its goal of bringing Taiwan under its control and continues to build the military capabilities needed to do so.
Beijing “prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” but the People’s Liberation Army is still developing plans and capabilities for a potential military operation, the report says.
Retired Navy Capt. Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, said the assessment risks being read too broadly if policymakers focus only on China’s current intentions rather than its growing capabilities.
“Intentions can change in a New York second,” Sadler told Fox News Digital. “Xi Jinping could wake up and decide, ‘I don’t want to go to war today,’ but he could wake up tomorrow in the morning and say, ‘Yeah, today’s the day.’ The real issue is where the money and where the materials are going.”
The annual threat assessment, produced by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, reflects the coordinated analysis of the U.S. intelligence community and is mandated by Congress to provide lawmakers with an unclassified overview of the most pressing global threats. The report is compiled with input from across the intelligence agencies based on updates throughout the past year.
The assessment is released annually in both classified and unclassified forms, with a public version intended to outline key threats without revealing sensitive intelligence sources or methods.
U.S. intelligence officials also note that any decision by China to use force would depend on several factors, including military readiness, Taiwan’s political trajectory and whether the United States would intervene on the island’s behalf.
The report warns that a full-scale invasion would be difficult and risky, particularly if U.S. forces become involved, with Chinese officials recognizing that such an operation would be “extremely challenging” and carry a high risk of failure.
Piero Tozzi, a senior fellow at the Center for China at the America First Policy Institute, argued Beijing is still focused on trying to take Taiwan without a direct military confrontation.
“What they want to do is to win Taiwan without a war,” Tozzi told Fox News Digital, pointing instead to what he described as ongoing “cognitive warfare” efforts targeting Taiwan’s political system and public opinion.
He added that a full-scale amphibious invasion would come at a steep cost for China.
“An actual invasion of Taiwan would be very bloody,” Tozzi said. “If you had a maritime invasion of Taiwan and the casualties, you’d be talking about wiping out entire family lineages in the tens of thousands. That would lead to serious internal unrest within China, and that would threaten the regime.”
More broadly, the intelligence community assesses that China is continuing to expand its military power and global influence while seeking to “buy time to strengthen its position” in its long-term competition with the United States.
CHINA-LINKED BIRTH TOURISM UNDER SCRUTINY AS GOP LAWMAKERS PRESS TRUMP ADMIN FOR ANSWERS
The updated assessment comes as the U.S. remains heavily engaged in a high-intensity conflict with Iran, raising new questions among defense analysts about how global tensions could shape Beijing’s calculus on Taiwan.
While the report does not directly link the recent Iran conflict to China’s timeline, it highlights a broader environment of rising geopolitical competition, military modernization and regional instability that could influence future decisions in Beijing.
At the same time, the intelligence community warns that Iran is likely to continue posing a threat to U.S. interests following recent military strikes, noting that Tehran “almost certainly will seek to exact revenge” for the death of its supreme leader.
Even without a near-term move on Taiwan, the report makes clear that the risk of conflict with China remains, as Beijing continues preparing for a range of military contingencies while pursuing its long-term goal of unification.